111
FXUS61 KBTV 151347
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
947 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming temperatures and increasing humid air will be the theme
for the week. High pressure will begin to build in from the
east with several weak shortwaves passing through the region in
the early portion of the week. More unsettled weather and
thunderstorm chances increase beyond Wednesday as a upper-level
trough approaches the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 944 AM EDT Sunday...We`re off to a pretty pleasant start
this morning. Skies are generally partly to mostly cloudy, with
perhaps a bit more cloud cover than previously anticipated,
particularly over northern NY. We`ve already seen a few showers
on radar, sliding from the Adirondacks into the southern
Champlain Valley. These are probably nothing but sprinkles at
the most, but have sped up the slight chance PoPs to current
time to account for the potential for light showers. Otherwise
the forecast is in good shape and no other changes were needed
with this update.

Previous discussion...The end of the weekend and start of next
week in the near term remains largely on the calmer side with
just some mountain showers for precipitation chances. A weak
shortwave is expected to clip the region today to the northeast
resulting in marginal instability, enough for some shower
chances primarily in the Adirondacks and central Vermont. Pops
are only 15-25% with weak forcing mechanisms. Behind the
shortwave, drier air in the St. Lawrence Valley will begin to
filter in across northern New York and much of Vermont, making
for a pleasant day with light and variable winds. Temperatures
will be seasonable today with highs in the low to mid 70s. Weak
surface ridging from the east will begin to develop as high
pressure over the Canadian Maritimes attempts to push in. This
will help to draw in additional moisture beginning a trend of
increasing dewpoints for the remainder of the week.

Heading into Sunday night, this increased moisture, and light winds
could help develop some localized patchy fog, particularly in the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom where skies will be clear with
decent radiational cooling. Overnight lows on Sunday will dip into
the low to mid 50s, with some upper 40s in the higher terrain and
NEK.

Similarly to Sunday, a weak shortwave will ride along subtle upper
level ridging on Monday leading to additional chances of
precipitation, primarily in the Adirondacks and central
Vermont. This wave looks to be a little deeper which will lead
to better rain chances on Monday than Sunday with PoPs 20-40%.
Highs on Monday will be on the increase with values in the upper
70s to near 80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Sunday...The Bermuda Ridge will be edging northward
Monday night while a trough approaches out of the west. The result
will be for increasing cloud cover and warming temperatures aloft.
While dry conditions will linger through the night, dew points will
be rising keeping lows warmer than recent conditions generally in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. Height falls ahead of the trough and
impinging ridge will support increasing shower chances through the
afternoon as southerly flow deepens. Temperature are strongly
favored to trend warmer with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s. While a
rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out, the primary energy
with the trough will most likely pass through southern Canada.
However, the ridge placement favors a pattern where the surface
boundary will linger over the North County.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Sunday...Moisture and temperature advection is
favored to increase further with models projecting 850mb
temperatures warming around 20 C. This would lead to a marked
warming trend Tuesday through Thursday with highs likely in the
mid/upper 80s coupled with dew points in excess of 60 F; this
supports muggy conditions and apparent temperatures around 90 F -
definitely trending uncomfortable for most in the broader valleys.
With this heat, instability will be on the rise and afternoon
thunderstorms should be anticipated given the proximity of a surface
boundary. Wednesday, flow is projected to be more parallel to the
boundary, so a mix mode of heavy rainers with a few stronger cells
are possible. Model trends have shown a decreased amplitude for the
Thursday trough with continued shear in the 40-50kt in the 0- 6km
layer. However, some heavy rain and a few stronger thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out in this pattern. Friday could be the day where
shear and CAPE line up better with guidance amplifying the trough
enough to push a boundary through the North Country. This could
allow temperatures to decrease marginally back mainly into the 70s,
but has a good chance to knock dew points back into the 50s helping
scour higher humidity by Saturday. Looking farther ahead, consensus
points to increasing temperatures again Sunday into early next week,
but trough/ridge variances are higher between models on placement of
moderate amplitude trough/ridges at this time scale suggesting lower
than usual reliability for the late weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected at all
terminals beyond 14Z through 07Z. Fog this morning at MPV
should mix out in the PBL by 13Z-14Z with some lingering low-
level scattered cloud decks. Ceilings will remain VFR with
heights between 6000-10000 ft agl through the day. A weak
boundary will slide across the area this afternoon resulting in
a possible stray shower at SLK/RUT/MPV, however, these showers
if they develop, are not expected to have any terminal category
reductions. Winds today will be generally light under 5 knots
throughout the day. Calm winds and additional moisture have many
models indicating widespread fog tonight beyond 07Z at
MPV/RUT/SLK/EFK. The best chances at IFR or lower with fog
exists at MPV/RUT, especially if they receive any precipitation
today. No LLWS is expected.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Danzig